Market Simulator for MDD

A top ten pharma company with a number of pipeline assets required market research and market simulator development that could launch with a MDD and/or TRD indication.

There was a requirement to model patient numbers and revenue across 7 major markets, for each line of therapy, considering specific comorbidity combinations.

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Objective 1:

Simultaneously model segments of the entire depression market

The client wanted to know how its new assets could compete with the products currently on the market, and products that are expected to launch in the future.

Key customer insights required

  • Share development for all therapy classes and brands.
  • Patient forecast for all therapy classes and brands.


Market is segmented into MDD and TRD, with multiple lines of therapy and a high degree of co-prescription.

Objective 2:

Predict potential future antidepressants market share

Across its portfolio, the client wanted to identify the most important product attributes according to different stakeholder preferences.

2 different stakeholder groups were surveyed; primary care physicians and psychiatrists.
The attributes tested were the key attributes the client’s in-house physicians identified as being the most important to making a prescribing decision.

Key customer insights required

  • Relative importance of fixed and easy-to-implement product attributes.
  • Recommendations for easy-to-implement revenue-optimising solutions.


Two simultaneous conjoint analyses were required to cover the MDD and TRD indications we were modelling. The impact of different comorbidities were also considered.

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