FlexiCast™ Bass Uptake Model

Providing evidence-based demand forecasts to the pharmaceutical industry

FlexiCast includes 15 uptake modelling tools specific for the requirements of pharmaceutical forecasts, built for the requirements of pharmaceutical forecasts

A key element of any pharma brand forecast is a prediction of how quickly your brand will diffuse onto the market. FlexiCast is Inpharmation’s evidence-based pharma forecasting software which features pharma-specific uptake models.

The Bass Model is the most studied model by experts in the social sciences; it allows you to estimate the shape of the uptake curve for any new technology (for pharmaceuticals this means a new therapeutic category).

Inpharmation’s pharma-specific uptake modelling builds upon the evidence of the Bass Model for your pharmaceutical forecasts:

  • Inpharmation’s Bass Model therapeutic class uptake calibration tools have been calibrated based upon 88 different therapy areas across all seven major markets.
  • Over 4000 diffusion studies show people adopt novel product innovations cautiously; Bass Model forecasting allows you to build these dynamics into your uptake forecast.
  • The original full-market Bass Model was non pharma-specific; Inpharmation’s Law of Contest is based upon the competition dynamics specific to pharmaceutical markets.
Therapy areas the Bass Model has been calibrated in.

The Bass Model shows you how a new product or idea spreads through the user community. It therefore predicts the uptake curve for new therapeutic categories. This is typically, but not always, S-shaped. Initially uptake is slow as there are few people to imitate. Then, as usage builds, uptake snowballs; there are more and more people to imitate. Eventually, the market saturates and usage levels off.
  • Inpharmation’s two decades of experience using the Bass Model to forecast pharmaceuticals has shown that most physicians wait until they have witnessed peers having favorable experiences with innovative pharmaceutical technologies before they themselves adopt. In other words most people imitate rather than innovate.
  • More importantly, Inpharmation has developed a suite of uptake calibration tools to help predict the speed of adoption for any novel pharmaceutical.
  • Also developed by Inpharmation is an essential pharma-specific enhancement of the Bass Model – the Law of Contest – which allows you to forecast the sales of all competing classes or products in a market in one combined function.
%
Of top-20 pharma companies are using Inpharmation’s FlexiCast demand forecasting software.

"FlexiCast is a great tool as it is based on evidence.
This makes it a lot easier to sell forecasting results to top level decision makers."

Strategy and Portfolio Manager, Top-10 pharmaceutical company

Evidence-based pharma forecasting software

75% of the top-20 global pharma companies use Inpharmation’s evidence-based forecasting platform, including our Bass Model forecasting and Law of Contest forecasting modules.

On top of FlexiCast’s core pharma-specific uptake modules, you also have access to:

  • Whole market Bass Model fitting algorithms, so you can ‘tune’ your forecast to your real-world market conditions.
  • Pharma-specific uptake calibration tools to predict your brand’s uptake speed based on your product characteristics.
  • Event tools to factor in the impact of post-launch events, such as the release of new clinical trial results.
  • Curve-fitting tools to forecast your speed of uptake and potential peak market shares.

Included in all FlexiCast software licenses is Bass Model forecasting software training from Inpharmation; leaders in passing on our knowledge to our customers, in fact 93% of course attendees highly rate our forecasting training.

The evidence behind Inpharmation’s fact-based approach to pricing is meticulously documented in the book Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence-Based Approach by Inpharmation’s Managing Director, Gary Johnson.

Request a free evidence-based Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals information pack
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