FlexiCast™ Risk Models

Providing evidence-based risk models to the pharmaceutical industry

phRISK™, is an incredibly easy-to-use risk simulator that, unlike other simulators, was specifically designed by experts to quantify the risk in pharmaceutical sales forecasts. Built as an add-in to Excel, you have the flexibility to use phRISK to add risk analysis to all your existing Excel forecasts.

Using FlexiCast, Inpharmation’s pharmaceutical modelling software, means you get access to the whole package of phRISK features. This means you can take your existing Excel pharmaceutical forecasts and add uncertainty, scenarios and decisions to see exactly how these impact your results.

  • The risk of not building pharma-specific risk into your forecasts is huge; 14x over-estimates vs. actual results.
  • Inpharmation has identified the 13 pharma-relevant risk distributions key to your brand forecasting.
  • 40% of top-50 pharmaceutical companies use FlexiCast, including phRISK, for demand forecasting.
Analyst forecasts without pharma-specific risk were an average of 14x greater than actual brand sales.

Inpharmation's phRISK is the best way to help answer critical pharmaceutical business questions, such as:
  • Several of my forecast assumptions are uncertain, such as patient numbers and market shares… How certain is my forecast?
  • I know several of my forecast assumptions are wrong… How sensitive is my forecast to variance in these assumptions?
  • I can envisage a number of scenarios ahead… What are the results I can expect for each of these and how likely are they?
  • I have a number of critical decisions ahead… What combination of decisions is likely to generate the best results?

Not only does phRISK contain the pharma-relevant risk functions, but it also includes a range of additional tools and outputs.

You can quantify your pharmaceutical forecast sensitivity to key assumptions and also view your risk and sensitivity outputs in classic fan and tornado charts. These can be dropped straight into your Excel workbook.

FlexiCast’s pharma-relevant risk distributions key to your brand forecasting.

"FlexiCast is a great tool as it is based on evidence. This makes it a lot easier to sell forecasting results to top level decision makers."

Strategy and Portfolio Manager, Top-10 pharmaceutical company

Evidence-based pharmaceutical risk modelling

40% of the top-50 global pharmaceutical companies use Inpharmation’s evidence-based forecasting platform, including our phRISK forecasting module. Because Inpharmation takes an evidence-based approach to all pharmaceutical forecasting, we have developed a superior pharmaceutical risk modelling platform when compared to other tools like Crystal Ball and @Risk:
  • Traditional risk analyzers contain functions designed specifically for modelling risk for engineering, stock market analysis, oil exploration, manufacturing process control etc.
  • phRISK was designed specifically for pharmaceutical risk modelling, with 13 risk functions that are relevant to pharmaceutical modelling.
  • As a result, not only is phRISK an order of magnitude less complicated than non-pharma-specific tools, it is also incredibly easy to use.
  • Most importantly, when you need help and support, you get it from experts in pharmaceutical forecasting.

Included in all FlexiCast software licenses is pharmaceutical risk modelling training from Inpharmation; 93% of Inpharmation forecasting training course attendees highly rate us.

FlexiCast is built for maximum flexibility and ease of use. From a biotech forecasting team of one, to global roll-outs with top-20 pharma, Inpharmation can help you integrate our powerful forecasting platform into your forecasting process.

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