FlexiCast™ Final Share Models

Providing evidence-based final share forecasts to the pharmaceutical industry

FlexiCast includes a suite of 15 Pharma-Specific share modelling tools, built for the requirements of pharmaceutical forecasts

A key element of any pharma brand forecast is a prediction of what your brand’s final share of the market will be, typically sourced from a market share forecast model or conjoint-based analysis. FlexiCast is Inpharmation’s evidence-based pharma forecasting software with specialized final share models, including our pharma-specific Basket of Share ModelsTM.

Inpharmation’s pharma-specific Basket of Share Models builds upon decades of expert research into the final share forecast models that have proven accuracy, simplicity and validity for real-world for pharmaceutical forecasts. By using FlexiCast you can achieve the following results:

  • 75% relative reduction in error* for Inpharmation’s final share modelling vs. standard approaches.
  • 30% relative reduction in error** for Inpharmation’s final shares vs. non-pharma-specific approaches.
  • Transform your forecasting methodology with an approach built on a solid, rational evidence-base.
*Taking a combined forecast approach vs. a standard dilution model approach.
** Taking a combined forecast approach using pharma-specific combination methodology vs. a standard combined approach.
%
reduction in error for Inpharmation’s final shares vs. non-pharma-specific approaches.

Traditional pharmaceutical market share forecast models are often no better than simple calculators, requiring you to make the key assumptions about your brand’s sales potential. Often there is absolutely no validation that the forecast approach is suitable for a pharmaceutical forecast, let alone your specific brand forecast requirements.

FlexiCast’s Basket of Share Models was developed to answer all your pharma peak share modelling requirements, including quantifying how the following key forecast assumptions drive market shares in your therapeutic area:

  • Your brand TPP: Quantify how your brand market shares are driven by your brand’s product profile.
  • Competitor effects: Quantify how changes in the competitive landscape impact all brand market shares.
  • Launch timing and entry order: Quantify how launch delays impact market potential.
  • Promotional support: Quantify how promotional support efforts and your relative share of voice impact market shares.

These pharma market share forecast models have been extensively calibrated and validated for pharmaceutical demand forecasts. For example, Inpharmation’s brand TPP and competition model has been validated in 155 different pharmaceutical brand sales forecasts.

FlexiCast’s brand TPP and competition model has been validated for use in 155 pharmaceutical product forecasts.

"We began using FlexiCast several years ago to forecast a pipeline therapeutic area that represents a key focus for our company. We have found FlexiCast to offer a number of advantages over some of our other static market models. Without a doubt however, the largest advantage to this tool is the ability to easily update the assumptions in the "Basket of Share" module to maintain an "evergreen" estimate of the market. Owing to the successful implementation of FlexiCast in this highly visible therapeutic area, and the acceptance of the methodology by Sr. Management, a decision has been made to expand usage to forecast other markets with emerging technologies."

Senior Forecast Manager, Top-20 pharmaceutical company

Evidence-based pharma forecasting software

75% of the top-20 global pharma companies use Inpharmation’s evidence-based forecasting platform, including our Basket of Share Models forecasting module.

On top of FlexiCast’s core pharma-specific Basket of Share Models, you also have access to:

  • Five pharma-specific share models specific to complex therapeutic areas with market dynamics such as co-prescription and lines of therapy.
  • Inpharmation’s oncology-specific forecast models; validated in the major tumor types; across EU5, US and Japan.
  • Inpharmation’s core share models that have been validated for pharma forecasts across 24 of the major therapeutic areas for EU5, US and Japan.

Included in all FlexiCast software licenses is market share forecast model training from Inpharmation; leaders in passing on our knowledge to our customers, in fact 93% of course attendees highly rate our forecasting training.

FlexiCast is built for maximum flexibility and ease of use. From a biotech forecasting team of one to global roll-outs with top-20 pharma, Inpharmation can help you integrate our powerful forecasting platform into your forecasting process.

The evidence behind Inpharmation’s fact-based approach to pricing is meticulously documented in the book Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence-Based Approach by Inpharmation’s Managing Director, Gary Johnson.

Request a free evidence-based Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals information pack
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