Market Access in Forecasts

Developing evidence-based value pricing strategies for the pharmaceutical industry

Inpharmation’s evidence-based approach to building market access into both demand research and forecasts and into pricing research, brings together our decades of experience forecasting with a huge dataset of market access decisions and restrictions. Forecasts including Pharma Market Access from Inpharmation have the following key advantages:
  • Inpharmation’s demand forecast Pharma Market Access tool is based upon analysis of over 300 market access restrictions from 8 different country health systems.
  • Inpharmation’s econometric models for market access forecasts have 93% predictive validity.*
  • Market access forecasts draw upon insights from over 3000 historical payer decisions.
*Predictive validity from hold-out tests based upon real-world pharma reimbursement decisions.
Pharma Market Access function based upon analysis of over 300 market access restrictions in 8 countries.

In the past, all registered products competed for all indicated patients. Share was driven by profile, entry order and share of voice. The competitive battle took place at the level of the individual prescriber.

Today, things are very different. Payers, of various types depending on the specific health system, control market access. Competing classes and brands have access to different proportions of the indicated patients.

Pharma forecast models have been slow to respond to these changed realities. Market access is often not built into forecasting models or is handled in an ad-hoc and totally invalid way.

For example, “market access factors” are often applied to each product in the forecast, which produces wholly unrealistic results for two reasons:

  • First, market access operates in different ways at different levels of the forecast; therapeutic class market access restrictions are different from brand market access restrictions.
  • Second, market access restrictions are often highly correlated and are not independent in the way that market access factors imply.
%
Of top-20 pharma companies are using Inpharmation’s FlexiCast™ demand forecasting software.

"Europe's most respected pharma forecasting & pricing specialist consultancy."

Centre for Executive Leadership

Evidence-based pharma market access

The reason more than 70% of the top-20 global pharma companies use Inpharmation’s evidence-based forecasting platform, is because when you need accurate, reliable forecasts, you need solutions that are based upon validated, Pharma-SpecificTM models and tools.

Having reviewed over 3000 historical payer decisions and over 300 market access restrictions, Inpharmation has developed the Pharma Market Access algorithm to capture the key types of market access restrictions brands experience in the real world.

The evidence behind Inpharmation’s fact-based approach to pricing is meticulously documented in the book Value Pricing for Market Access: Evidence-Based Pricing for Pharmaceuticals by Inpharmation’s Managing Director, Gary Johnson.

Request a free evidence-based Value Pricing for Market Access information pack
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